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Botswana’s regulated betting market has expanded quickly following the Gambling Authority’s 2023 process to license bookmaker and totalisator operators, including online betting subject to regulatory approval.

In January 2024, before locally licensed online operators were active, the Authority said it had recorded about 510,000 monthly cases of Botswanans participating in illegal online gambling.

Sunbet Botswana launched its online sports-betting platform in February 2025 and reported a 4,700% increase in sign-ups during its first month. As this was an operator-reported figure, the company did not publicly disclose the comparison baseline or absolute number of registrations.

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If the research firm’s $190 billion taker volume estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than eightfold increase from the $22 billion taker turnover seen last year.

Potentially boding well for the Macquarie forecast are at least two factors. First, there are signs of turnover increases across a variety of yes/no exchanges. Second, volume surged to start September with those spikes arriving even before the NFL season kicked off.

As Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon points out, prediction markets generated $4.3 billion in taker volume during the first week of September without any help from the NFL, building on momentum from the 2026 World Cup. However, the NFL’s impact was immediate, with taker volume hitting a daily record during Week 1 of the campaign.

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“It’s not that I want to collect taxes because I need the money. I want to collect taxes for the sake of fairness: if a company sells cars, it pays taxes; if it sells drinks, it pays taxes. If it’s authorised to operate, it has to pay.”

In the interview, the minister mentioned the tax changes proposed by the Ministry of Finance, and more recently, the ban on beneficiaries of social welfare programmes from gambling.

Durigan recalled that Lula has already made clear his discomfort with the cost and quality of life for people.