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That estimate arrives courtesy of Macquarie and is well ahead of the research firm’s previous estimate of $169 billion in 2026 taker volume.

Takers is a prediction market industry colloquialism for the market participants that swiftly fill buy and sell orders, thus removing liquidity from the marketplace. Conversely, makers are the market participants viewed as liquidity providers and professional or sharp money.

“Recent launches, including customizable same-game parlays (SGPs), further support our view that Prediction Markets (PM) are increasingly converging with traditional sportsbooks,” observes Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon. “As a result, we now estimate total US PM taker volume to reach $190 billion in 2026E (vs $169 billion prior).”

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However, that responsibility does not lie with the Central Bank. It is the role of the Secretariat of Prizes and Bets to monitor and regulate the sector. Betting companies submit detailed daily reports on bettors’ financial transactions with the sites. A specific module within Brazil’s betting management system detects recurring transfers.

“Today I met a young man who made 1,400 Pix transfers in three months, and the Central Bank didn’t detect that this was an excessive number of transfers to the same company?” Lula said.

“Are we remaining passive while society drowns in debt? Are we remaining passive while society is driven to madness – because this is an illness? People lose their minds; they contemplate suicide or abandoning their homes. So, we are going to take serious action.”

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The enlarged group could deliver up to €4 billion in capital returns over the three years following the completion of the deal.

Cirsa has followed an aggressive acquisition strategy in recent years, most recently entering the land-based casino market in Portugal by acquiring a majority stake in Sociedade Figueira Praia, S.A., the owner and operator of Casino Figueira.

Prior to that, Cirsa entered the Paraguay market through an acquisition of the online slots operator Slots del Sol, while it also acquired the leading Peruvian operator Apuesta Total in 2024.